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Krāmma matches the same question on both venues, walks each order book at 500 contracts and takes off the fees, so you see what a gap is worth rather than what it looks like. It also records how every market settles, so prices and wallets can be checked against what happened.
Every market Krāmma follows is recorded before it settles and again after, so the price can be checked against the result. A day before settling, markets priced around 74% came true 78% of the time.
Across 7,556 recorded prices, most bands sit close to the line, which means the prices were broadly honest. Where a band sits off it, the bar shows whether that is a pattern or noise.
Anyone can read today's prices from the venues. Knowing how past ones turned out takes an archive, and this is it.
| Price band | Average price | Happened | 95% interval | Events | Prices |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0%–10% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4%–8% | 547 | 1,637 |
| 10%–20% | 14.3% | 17.6% | 15%–21% | 527 | 858 |
| 20%–30% | 24.9% | 25.3% | 22%–29% | 555 | 851 |
| 30%–40% | 34.9% | 40.0% | 36%–44% | 488 | 718 |
| 40%–50% | 45.9% | 42.7% | 39%–46% | 681 | 1,080 |
| 50%–60% | 52.1% | 51.9% | 48%–55% | 785 | 1,388 |
| 60%–70% | 64.4% | 69.3% | 64%–74% | 289 | 371 |
| 70%–80% | 74.1% | 77.9% | 72%–83% | 201 | 226 |
| 80%–90% | 84.8% | 90.3% | 85%–94% | 151 | 185 |
| 90%–100% | 95.0% | 95.9% | 92%–98% | 183 | 242 |
Order books from Polymarket and Kalshi are read every five minutes and kept.
Two contracts count as the same question only above a 0.80 match score, and a gap is priced only when both venues’ rules would settle it the same way.
Each gap is walked through both books at 500 contracts, then fees and settlement costs are taken off.
When a market settles, the result is recorded, so every figure can be checked later.
It tells you what a price is worth. Acting on it is up to you, and by then the price may have moved.
Kalshi accounts are private, so wallet scoring covers Polymarket only.
Where there is not enough data to say something, the page says so and shows the count.
Observer is free and needs no account. Trader and Desk are not open yet; leave an email and you will hear when they are.
Anyone following prediction markets
See both venues in one place and find out what the crowd changed its mind about, without an account.
Start herePeople trading their own money
Know what a gap is really worth while it is still there, and get a straight answer about your own record whenever you want one.
Funds, prop traders and market makers
Everything in Trader, with three times the price history and the ability to pull it into your own tools.